Loading Only the Overs.
PREGAME MATCHUP RESEARCH
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM · Scheduled
Kickoff weather · Mostly clear · 83°F · 9% precip. · 2 mph wind
SpreadStrong confidence
Over / UnderStrong confidence
Each market is evaluated independently so a strong total does not inflate the spread signal.
PROJECTED SCORE
1,500 simulations · Five recent completed games per team
Pregame · Louisville Cardinals home spread
VILL (+36.5) has a 33.62-point model edge, and the 95% model interval clears the posted line.
Model lean: VILL (+36.5) · Simulated success 97.2% · Push 0%
Pregame · Total points / Over-under
Under (56.5) has a 11.35-point model edge, and the 95% model interval clears the posted line.
Model lean: Under (56.5) · Simulated success 74.4% · Push 0%
Score order: the team named on the box is first; its opponent is second. A = AwayH = HomeN = Neutral
This experimental baseline resamples each team's five most recent completed regular/postseason box scores 1,500 times. It applies conservative adjustments for opponent record strength, recent combined scoring environment as a pace proxy, kickoff weather, and a 1.5-point home-field assumption (zero at a neutral site). Second-half projections scale the scoring window and apply a capped modifier from first-half scoring. Spread and total confidence are scored separately.
Strong confidence requires a 3.5+ point edge and a 95% bootstrap interval that clears the listed market. Moderate confidence requires a 2+ point edge with at least 55% simulated support. Everything else is an emerging signal. The model is not calibrated as a guarantee and does not yet incorporate play-by-play pace, injuries, or roster turnover. Model context-bootstrap-v4 · Only the current market phase is shown; pregame lines close at kickoff.