Loading Only the Overs.
PREGAME MATCHUP RESEARCH
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM · Scheduled
Kickoff weather · Light drizzle · 78°F · 41% precip. · 12 mph wind
SpreadStrong confidence
Over / UnderStrong confidence
Each market is evaluated independently so a strong total does not inflate the spread signal.
PROJECTED SCORE
1,500 simulations · Five recent completed games per team
Pregame · Oklahoma State Cowboys home spread
OKST (+22.5) has a 16.88-point model edge, and the 95% model interval clears the posted line.
Model lean: OKST (+22.5) · Simulated success 84.8% · Push 0%
Pregame · Total points / Over-under
Under (57.5) has a 13.26-point model edge, and the 95% model interval clears the posted line.
Model lean: Under (57.5) · Simulated success 78.6% · Push 0%
Score order: the team named on the box is first; its opponent is second. A = AwayH = HomeN = Neutral
This experimental baseline resamples each team's five most recent completed regular/postseason box scores 1,500 times. It applies conservative adjustments for opponent record strength, recent combined scoring environment as a pace proxy, kickoff weather, and a 1.5-point home-field assumption (zero at a neutral site). Second-half projections scale the scoring window and apply a capped modifier from first-half scoring. Spread and total confidence are scored separately.
Strong confidence requires a 3.5+ point edge and a 95% bootstrap interval that clears the listed market. Moderate confidence requires a 2+ point edge with at least 55% simulated support. Everything else is an emerging signal. The model is not calibrated as a guarantee and does not yet incorporate play-by-play pace, injuries, or roster turnover. Model context-bootstrap-v4 · Only the current market phase is shown; pregame lines close at kickoff.