Loading Only the Overs.
PREGAME MATCHUP RESEARCH
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 3:30 PM · Scheduled
Kickoff weather · Light drizzle · 85°F · 20% precip. · 9 mph wind
SpreadModerate confidence
Over / UnderEmerging signal
Each market is evaluated independently so a strong total does not inflate the spread signal.
PROJECTED SCORE
1,500 simulations · Five recent completed games per team
Pregame · Kentucky Wildcats home spread
UK (+10.5) has 69.9% simulated support and a 14.83-point model edge.
Model lean: UK (+10.5) · Simulated success 69.9% · Push 0%
Pregame · Total points / Over-under
Under (49.5) is the current model direction, but the edge has not reached the moderate-confidence threshold.
Model lean: Under (49.5) · Simulated success 50.2% · Push 0%
Score order: the team named on the box is first; its opponent is second. A = AwayH = HomeN = Neutral
This experimental baseline resamples each team's five most recent completed regular/postseason box scores 1,500 times. It applies conservative adjustments for opponent record strength, recent combined scoring environment as a pace proxy, kickoff weather, and a 1.5-point home-field assumption (zero at a neutral site). Second-half projections scale the scoring window and apply a capped modifier from first-half scoring. Spread and total confidence are scored separately.
Strong confidence requires a 3.5+ point edge and a 95% bootstrap interval that clears the listed market. Moderate confidence requires a 2+ point edge with at least 55% simulated support. Everything else is an emerging signal. The model is not calibrated as a guarantee and does not yet incorporate play-by-play pace, injuries, or roster turnover. Model context-bootstrap-v4 · Only the current market phase is shown; pregame lines close at kickoff.